As of October 5, 2026, the prediction market “Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?” is tracked on Polyman with these live implied probabilities from Polymarket odds: Yes 4%, No 96%. Total traded volume is $7K. This market is open for trading. Polyman shows real-time odds, the positions of Polymarket traders in this market, and lets you copy traders with one tap.