Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

As of July 4, 2026, the prediction market “Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?” is tracked on Polyman with these live implied probabilities from Polymarket odds: Yes 5%, No 95%. Total traded volume is $777K. This market is open for trading. Polyman shows real-time odds, the positions of top Polymarket traders in this market, and lets you copy winning traders with one tap.